Hubbert's Peak

5 Second Explanation of Peak Oil

2007-02-19T23:38:00.000-08:00

I'm going to start a series of explanations of Peak Oil and they'll be different lengths. This is good so that you can adapt or choose your explanation for the time or attention span that your audience will give you.

Here's the first, and quickest, explanation:

Five second explanation of peak oil: Oil is finite and non-renewable. We use an increasing amount of oil every year.*

Anyone who doesn't agree with those two principles or cannot come to the conclusion that eventually we will pump, more or less, all the usable oil of the ground is probably a lost cause.

*(Non-renewable in the time spans were are dealing with.) (Oil crunches and recessions excepted for the increasing amount. It's still plainly obvious we use a lot and it goes up every year.)

Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert

2007-02-17T00:11:00.001-08:00

has been an interesting read so far, I"m gonna write an indepth review in the near future.

Bush Vows To Eliminate U.S. Dependence On Oil By 4920 | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

2005-10-15T21:49:00.000-07:00

Bush Vows To Eliminate U.S. Dependence On Oil By 4920 | The Onion - America's Finest News Source: "Bush Vows To Eliminate U.S. Dependence On Oil By 4920

August 10, 2005 | Issue 41•32

WASHINGTON, DC—President Bush unveiled an aggressive initiative Monday that would make the U.S. free of petroleum dependence by the year 4920, less than three millennia from now."

New oil shale technology from Shell: In-situ Conversion Process

2005-09-05T12:48:00.000-07:00

We'll see if this pans out: Rocky Mountain News: Shell's ingenious approach to oil shale is pretty slick. If it does work out to be economical at $30/barrel and has an EROEI of about 3.5 then we might be ok after all. However, this columnist doesn't mention rates or scaling all that much. She says that it takes about eight months or so to go from normal ground to when the oil starts to come up and that it dried up, and pretty quickly too, about a year later.

I really hope they can get this to scale and produce at a fast enough rate as it does look a lot more promising than other oil shale recovery methods.

Also, here's some testimony that Terry O'Connor of Shell gave before Congress a few months ago regarding In-situ Conversion Process: Committee on Resources-Index

This has also been crossposted over to Nanothoughts: NanoThoughts 1.0: New oil shale technology from Shell: In-situ Conversion Process

Naomi Klein's favorite site?

2005-08-22T13:01:00.000-07:00

www.logotypes.ru

I just know it is. If you've read No Logo, please leave a comment. Thanks.

Don't Blame OPEC; Higher Gas Prices Are Almost Entirely Bush's Fault :: ILCA Online :: Making Labor Media a Force to Be Reckoned With

2005-04-19T09:35:00.000-07:00

Don't Blame OPEC; Higher Gas Prices Are Almost Entirely Bush's Fault :: ILCA Online :: Making Labor Media a Force to Be Reckoned With

CNN.com - Bush pushes his energy policy - Apr 16, 2005

2005-04-17T10:36:00.000-07:00

CNN.com - Bush pushes his energy policy - Apr 16, 2005

Boing Boing discovers Peak oil

2005-04-14T11:58:00.000-07:00

Boing boing has a post about Peak oil today and it contains a lot of interesting links from all sides of the debate:
Boing Boing: Peak oil article in Rolling Stone

JSTOR: Science: New Series, Vol. 225, No. 4665, p. 890

2005-04-10T18:41:00.000-07:00

JSTOR: Science: New Series, Vol. 225, No. 4665, p. 890

IEA Energy Information Centre

2005-04-05T09:27:00.000-07:00

IEA Energy Information Centre

Great source of stats and other info.

Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel - UPDATE 3 Messenger | Yahoo! Finance-

2005-03-31T15:44:00.000-08:00

Got this from Jody at PolySciFi: Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel - UPDATE 3 Messenger | Yahoo! Finance-

Update: Ok, this article is actually a bunch of horseshit. i.e. Goldman Sachs is just trying to drive up the price because they ahve all kinds of speculative investment intersests. Next time I'll actually read the article before I post it.

The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Contributor: What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?

2005-03-30T18:57:00.000-08:00

The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Contributor: What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?

Peak Oil was the subject of the Times' Friday spread. Looks like the subject has finally "made it" in the mainstream press.

The Energy Crunch to Come: Soaring Oil Profits, Declining Discoveries, and Danger Signs

2005-03-22T18:12:00.000-08:00

The Energy Crunch to Come: Soaring Oil Profits, Declining Discoveries, and Danger Signs

t r u t h o u t - Michael T. Klare | Mapping the Oil Motive

2005-03-21T17:12:00.000-08:00

t r u t h o u t - Michael T. Klare | Mapping the Oil Motive

Peak Oil Speech in Congress

2005-03-20T10:00:00.000-08:00

Peak Oil Speech in Congress

Salon on Peak Oil

2005-03-15T15:17:00.000-08:00

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/031505G.shtml

Link fixed by Rog:http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/031505G.shtml

EnergyBulletin.net | US report acknowledges peak-oil threat

2005-03-14T10:17:00.000-08:00

EnergyBulletin.net | US report acknowledges peak-oil threat

the economist on natural gas

2005-03-14T10:13:00.000-08:00

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3712621

Sorry about that, sometimes the blogthis button doesn't put text to hyperlink between the anchor tags.

t r u t h o u t - William Rivers Pitt: The Prophecy of Oil

2005-03-11T17:14:00.000-08:00

t r u t h o u t - William Rivers Pitt: The Prophecy of Oil

Peak Oil Primer | EnergyBulletin.net

2005-03-01T12:26:00.000-08:00

Peak Oil Primer | EnergyBulletin.net

Aljazeera.Net - Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked

2005-03-01T12:07:00.000-08:00

Aljazeera.Net - Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked

Yahoo! News - Oil Prices Rise Toward $52 on OPEC Fears

2005-02-24T17:15:00.000-08:00

Yahoo! News - Oil Prices Rise Toward $52 on OPEC Fears

FT.com / Home UK - Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit

2005-02-16T15:14:00.000-08:00

FT.com / Home UK - Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit: "The cartel said it would have to supply at least 30.1m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of the year to balance the market, an increase of 630,000 b/d from its previous estimate in January and 1.1m b/d up from the December figure. The International Energy Agency forecasts Opec's capacity will be 31.5m b/d by mid-2005.

Opec pumped at capacity last autumn as it tried to catch up with a big increase in demand. But the sharp production increase reduced spare capacity to a 30-year low, helping push oil prices to a nominal record of more than $55 a barrel last October."

Yahoo! News Full Coverage - Business - Oil Falls as Early OPEC Cut Fears Fade

2005-02-07T10:49:00.000-08:00

Yahoo! News Full Coverage - Business - Oil Falls as Early OPEC Cut Fears Fade

When is the planet going to run out of oil?

2005-02-07T10:48:00.000-08:00

Ask Yahoo gets into the peak oil debate. Lots of nice links too: When is the planet going to run out of oil?

Deffeyes' current events on Hubbert's Peak

2005-01-23T22:05:00.000-08:00

Hubbert's Peak, Current Events: "Current Events
Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding
January 20, 2005

The production and reserves data for 2004 appeared in Oil & Gas Journal. During 2004, world oil production showed an uptick of 3 1/2 percent, in increase of about 2.5 million barrels per day over the 2003 figure. More than half of the increase came from two sources: Iraq and Russia. Production in Iraq doubled, and Russian production increased by 8 percent. There have been no reports of major Russian oil discoveries or field extensions, presumably the increase comes from catching up on maintenance deferred during the Communist era. My interpretation is that the uptick is part of the normal up-and-down jitter in the production curve. Worldwide, there have not been major discoveries or innovations that would put a permanent dogleg in the long-term trend.

Of particular interest is the 2004 production from Saudi Arabia: 8.75 million barrels per day. Early in 2003, Saudi Aramco and the government of Saudi Arabia announced that their production was maxed out at 9.2 million barrels per day. Yet there have been persistent stories that the Saudis could increase production to 11 million barrels per day. Both statements may be true! They could increase production, but they would soon regret having done so. An abrupt increase in their production rate would pull water up through the dolomitized streaks in the Ghawar field, like a teenager sucking on a soda straw. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be the world's last source of unused production capacity. At this point, there seems to be no surplus oil production capacity anywhere in the world.

'Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak' is now at the printer. Amazon.com will get an allottment of books as soon as they come from the printer, and Amazon is now taking orders for the book. Hardcore Hubbert freaks will appreciate chapter 3 in 'Beyond Oil' because Hubbert's pages of differential equations are replaced by three lines of high-school algebra.

Here are some corrections to the existing 'Hubbert Peak' book:

1. A reader pointed out that I could push the rock slab on page 92 with one hand, but it would take me a geologically long time to build up a significant velocity. A corollary: that parking lot better be exactly horizontal. If the parking lot had a slope of one degree, after one minute the rock slab would be moving faster than anyone could run to get out of the way.
2. A chemist pointed out that the bottom molecule pictured on page 28 is impossible because it contains an odd number of carbon atoms. The resonance structure of aromatic compounds, like benzene, requires that there be an even number of carbons.
3. At the bottom of page 153, readers were challenged either to discover a straight-line plot for the Gaussian bell-shaped curve or to prove that none could exist. The answer is now affirmative, there is a straight-line plot. A paper, to be submitted to Mathematical Geology, is now in preparation."

Eating Fossil Fuels

2005-01-13T22:30:00.000-08:00

Eating Fossil Fuels

Ghawar Is Dying

2005-01-13T09:16:00.000-08:00

Ghawar Is Dying

Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.

2005-01-11T03:22:00.000-08:00

Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.: "Chapter 1

OVERVIEW

Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis.

In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right."

Business Sustainability Initiative

2005-01-07T09:13:00.000-08:00

If you're near Hanover, NH in late Feb., there's going to be a conference on Business Sustainability Initiative, they have a section on Beyond the Oil Economy which will, hopefully, discuss Hubbert's Peak and other depletion related issues.

USNews.com: World supply is so precious that more price spikes are inevitable (1/10/05)

2005-01-07T08:27:00.000-08:00

USNews.com: World supply is so precious that more price spikes are inevitable (1/10/05)

Where did all the spare capacity go? To fuel all those jobs that have fled U.S. shores for Asia, with the world's two most populous countries, China and India, leading the pace in 2004. In fact, Asia accounted for nearly half of the 3.3 percent rise in world demand to 82.4 million barrels per day, the biggest increase since 1976 and "the single most important reason" for high oil prices, says CERA's Burkhard. Tens of thousands of factories across China now run on stand-alone diesel-oil generators--a reliable source of power but one that gobbles fuel.

But then they interestingly add:
Fortunately, manufacturers are expected to switch to the electric grid as new coal and hydroelectric plants come on line, which is why many experts predict China's oil demand will ease somewhat in the coming year.

as if demand is gonna go down, when instead it will merely plateau (and then only if you are extremely lucky).

Edge: THE WORLD QUESTION CENTER 2003

2005-01-07T07:56:00.000-08:00

Edge: THE WORLD QUESTION CENTER 2003

Hubbert peak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2005-01-06T08:56:00.000-08:00

Hubbert peak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Peak oil intro reading list - PostCarbonWiki

2005-01-05T23:27:00.000-08:00

Peak oil intro reading list - PostCarbonWiki

US Dept of Energy office supports Peak Oil theory - International Consumer Issues - Indymedia Ireland

2005-01-05T15:36:00.000-08:00

US Dept of Energy office supports Peak Oil theory - International Consumer Issues - Indymedia Ireland

The Post Carbon Institute - Learning to Live in a Low Energy World (Peak Oil and Gas, Global Relocalization)

2005-01-05T15:25:00.000-08:00

The Post Carbon Institute - Learning to Live in a Low Energy World (Peak Oil and Gas, Global Relocalization)

ATCE 2004 - Society of Petroleum Engineers

2005-01-05T15:18:00.000-08:00

ATCE 2004 - Society of Petroleum Engineers

Watch the video presentations by Lynch, Deffeyes, Simmons and Downey. There's also a Q&A session involving the four.

This Blog

2004-12-30T09:33:00.000-08:00

will deal with Hubbert's Peak, Peak Oil, and energy/sustainability issues in general.