Bush Vows To Eliminate U.S. Dependence On Oil By 4920 | The Onion - America's Finest News Source: "Bush Vows To Eliminate U.S. Dependence On Oil By 4920
August 10, 2005 | Issue 41•32
WASHINGTON, DC—President Bush unveiled an aggressive initiative Monday that would make the U.S. free of petroleum dependence by the year 4920, less than three millennia from now."
Saturday, October 15, 2005
Monday, September 05, 2005
New oil shale technology from Shell: In-situ Conversion Process
We'll see if this pans out: Rocky Mountain News: Shell's ingenious approach to oil shale is pretty slick. If it does work out to be economical at $30/barrel and has an EROEI of about 3.5 then we might be ok after all. However, this columnist doesn't mention rates or scaling all that much. She says that it takes about eight months or so to go from normal ground to when the oil starts to come up and that it dried up, and pretty quickly too, about a year later.
I really hope they can get this to scale and produce at a fast enough rate as it does look a lot more promising than other oil shale recovery methods.
Also, here's some testimony that Terry O'Connor of Shell gave before Congress a few months ago regarding In-situ Conversion Process: Committee on Resources-Index
This has also been crossposted over to Nanothoughts: NanoThoughts 1.0: New oil shale technology from Shell: In-situ Conversion Process
I really hope they can get this to scale and produce at a fast enough rate as it does look a lot more promising than other oil shale recovery methods.
Also, here's some testimony that Terry O'Connor of Shell gave before Congress a few months ago regarding In-situ Conversion Process: Committee on Resources-Index
This has also been crossposted over to Nanothoughts: NanoThoughts 1.0: New oil shale technology from Shell: In-situ Conversion Process
Monday, August 22, 2005
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Boing Boing discovers Peak oil
Boing boing has a post about Peak oil today and it contains a lot of interesting links from all sides of the debate:
Boing Boing: Peak oil article in Rolling Stone
Boing Boing: Peak oil article in Rolling Stone
Sunday, April 10, 2005
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel - UPDATE 3 Messenger | Yahoo! Finance-
Got this from Jody at PolySciFi: Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel - UPDATE 3 Messenger | Yahoo! Finance-
Update: Ok, this article is actually a bunch of horseshit. i.e. Goldman Sachs is just trying to drive up the price because they ahve all kinds of speculative investment intersests. Next time I'll actually read the article before I post it.
Update: Ok, this article is actually a bunch of horseshit. i.e. Goldman Sachs is just trying to drive up the price because they ahve all kinds of speculative investment intersests. Next time I'll actually read the article before I post it.
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Contributor: What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?
The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Contributor: What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?
Peak Oil was the subject of the Times' Friday spread. Looks like the subject has finally "made it" in the mainstream press.
Peak Oil was the subject of the Times' Friday spread. Looks like the subject has finally "made it" in the mainstream press.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Monday, March 21, 2005
Sunday, March 20, 2005
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Monday, March 14, 2005
the economist on natural gas
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3712621
Sorry about that, sometimes the blogthis button doesn't put text to hyperlink between the anchor tags.
Sorry about that, sometimes the blogthis button doesn't put text to hyperlink between the anchor tags.
Friday, March 11, 2005
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
FT.com / Home UK - Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit
FT.com / Home UK - Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit: "The cartel said it would have to supply at least 30.1m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of the year to balance the market, an increase of 630,000 b/d from its previous estimate in January and 1.1m b/d up from the December figure. The International Energy Agency forecasts Opec's capacity will be 31.5m b/d by mid-2005.
Opec pumped at capacity last autumn as it tried to catch up with a big increase in demand. But the sharp production increase reduced spare capacity to a 30-year low, helping push oil prices to a nominal record of more than $55 a barrel last October."
Opec pumped at capacity last autumn as it tried to catch up with a big increase in demand. But the sharp production increase reduced spare capacity to a 30-year low, helping push oil prices to a nominal record of more than $55 a barrel last October."
Monday, February 07, 2005
When is the planet going to run out of oil?
Ask Yahoo gets into the peak oil debate. Lots of nice links too: When is the planet going to run out of oil?
Sunday, January 23, 2005
Deffeyes' current events on Hubbert's Peak
Hubbert's Peak, Current Events: "Current Events
Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding
January 20, 2005
The production and reserves data for 2004 appeared in Oil & Gas Journal. During 2004, world oil production showed an uptick of 3 1/2 percent, in increase of about 2.5 million barrels per day over the 2003 figure. More than half of the increase came from two sources: Iraq and Russia. Production in Iraq doubled, and Russian production increased by 8 percent. There have been no reports of major Russian oil discoveries or field extensions, presumably the increase comes from catching up on maintenance deferred during the Communist era. My interpretation is that the uptick is part of the normal up-and-down jitter in the production curve. Worldwide, there have not been major discoveries or innovations that would put a permanent dogleg in the long-term trend.
Of particular interest is the 2004 production from Saudi Arabia: 8.75 million barrels per day. Early in 2003, Saudi Aramco and the government of Saudi Arabia announced that their production was maxed out at 9.2 million barrels per day. Yet there have been persistent stories that the Saudis could increase production to 11 million barrels per day. Both statements may be true! They could increase production, but they would soon regret having done so. An abrupt increase in their production rate would pull water up through the dolomitized streaks in the Ghawar field, like a teenager sucking on a soda straw. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be the world's last source of unused production capacity. At this point, there seems to be no surplus oil production capacity anywhere in the world.
'Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak' is now at the printer. Amazon.com will get an allottment of books as soon as they come from the printer, and Amazon is now taking orders for the book. Hardcore Hubbert freaks will appreciate chapter 3 in 'Beyond Oil' because Hubbert's pages of differential equations are replaced by three lines of high-school algebra.
Here are some corrections to the existing 'Hubbert Peak' book:
1. A reader pointed out that I could push the rock slab on page 92 with one hand, but it would take me a geologically long time to build up a significant velocity. A corollary: that parking lot better be exactly horizontal. If the parking lot had a slope of one degree, after one minute the rock slab would be moving faster than anyone could run to get out of the way.
2. A chemist pointed out that the bottom molecule pictured on page 28 is impossible because it contains an odd number of carbon atoms. The resonance structure of aromatic compounds, like benzene, requires that there be an even number of carbons.
3. At the bottom of page 153, readers were challenged either to discover a straight-line plot for the Gaussian bell-shaped curve or to prove that none could exist. The answer is now affirmative, there is a straight-line plot. A paper, to be submitted to Mathematical Geology, is now in preparation."
Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding
January 20, 2005
The production and reserves data for 2004 appeared in Oil & Gas Journal. During 2004, world oil production showed an uptick of 3 1/2 percent, in increase of about 2.5 million barrels per day over the 2003 figure. More than half of the increase came from two sources: Iraq and Russia. Production in Iraq doubled, and Russian production increased by 8 percent. There have been no reports of major Russian oil discoveries or field extensions, presumably the increase comes from catching up on maintenance deferred during the Communist era. My interpretation is that the uptick is part of the normal up-and-down jitter in the production curve. Worldwide, there have not been major discoveries or innovations that would put a permanent dogleg in the long-term trend.
Of particular interest is the 2004 production from Saudi Arabia: 8.75 million barrels per day. Early in 2003, Saudi Aramco and the government of Saudi Arabia announced that their production was maxed out at 9.2 million barrels per day. Yet there have been persistent stories that the Saudis could increase production to 11 million barrels per day. Both statements may be true! They could increase production, but they would soon regret having done so. An abrupt increase in their production rate would pull water up through the dolomitized streaks in the Ghawar field, like a teenager sucking on a soda straw. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be the world's last source of unused production capacity. At this point, there seems to be no surplus oil production capacity anywhere in the world.
'Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak' is now at the printer. Amazon.com will get an allottment of books as soon as they come from the printer, and Amazon is now taking orders for the book. Hardcore Hubbert freaks will appreciate chapter 3 in 'Beyond Oil' because Hubbert's pages of differential equations are replaced by three lines of high-school algebra.
Here are some corrections to the existing 'Hubbert Peak' book:
1. A reader pointed out that I could push the rock slab on page 92 with one hand, but it would take me a geologically long time to build up a significant velocity. A corollary: that parking lot better be exactly horizontal. If the parking lot had a slope of one degree, after one minute the rock slab would be moving faster than anyone could run to get out of the way.
2. A chemist pointed out that the bottom molecule pictured on page 28 is impossible because it contains an odd number of carbon atoms. The resonance structure of aromatic compounds, like benzene, requires that there be an even number of carbons.
3. At the bottom of page 153, readers were challenged either to discover a straight-line plot for the Gaussian bell-shaped curve or to prove that none could exist. The answer is now affirmative, there is a straight-line plot. A paper, to be submitted to Mathematical Geology, is now in preparation."
Thursday, January 13, 2005
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.
Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.: "Chapter 1
OVERVIEW
Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis.
In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right."
OVERVIEW
Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis.
In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right."
Friday, January 07, 2005
Business Sustainability Initiative
If you're near Hanover, NH in late Feb., there's going to be a conference on Business Sustainability Initiative, they have a section on Beyond the Oil Economy which will, hopefully, discuss Hubbert's Peak and other depletion related issues.
USNews.com: World supply is so precious that more price spikes are inevitable (1/10/05)
USNews.com: World supply is so precious that more price spikes are inevitable (1/10/05)
Where did all the spare capacity go? To fuel all those jobs that have fled U.S. shores for Asia, with the world's two most populous countries, China and India, leading the pace in 2004. In fact, Asia accounted for nearly half of the 3.3 percent rise in world demand to 82.4 million barrels per day, the biggest increase since 1976 and "the single most important reason" for high oil prices, says CERA's Burkhard. Tens of thousands of factories across China now run on stand-alone diesel-oil generators--a reliable source of power but one that gobbles fuel.
But then they interestingly add:
Fortunately, manufacturers are expected to switch to the electric grid as new coal and hydroelectric plants come on line, which is why many experts predict China's oil demand will ease somewhat in the coming year.
as if demand is gonna go down, when instead it will merely plateau (and then only if you are extremely lucky).
Where did all the spare capacity go? To fuel all those jobs that have fled U.S. shores for Asia, with the world's two most populous countries, China and India, leading the pace in 2004. In fact, Asia accounted for nearly half of the 3.3 percent rise in world demand to 82.4 million barrels per day, the biggest increase since 1976 and "the single most important reason" for high oil prices, says CERA's Burkhard. Tens of thousands of factories across China now run on stand-alone diesel-oil generators--a reliable source of power but one that gobbles fuel.
But then they interestingly add:
Fortunately, manufacturers are expected to switch to the electric grid as new coal and hydroelectric plants come on line, which is why many experts predict China's oil demand will ease somewhat in the coming year.
as if demand is gonna go down, when instead it will merely plateau (and then only if you are extremely lucky).
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
ATCE 2004 - Society of Petroleum Engineers
ATCE 2004 - Society of Petroleum Engineers
Watch the video presentations by Lynch, Deffeyes, Simmons and Downey. There's also a Q&A session involving the four.
Watch the video presentations by Lynch, Deffeyes, Simmons and Downey. There's also a Q&A session involving the four.
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